The Long Web - Jeremy Keith at Full Frontal 2013

Introduction and Chicago (0m00s)

Keith opens by acknowledging his pleasure at speaking at Full Frontal and sharing his connection to the Duke of York's venue. He then asks the audience to identify a photograph of Chicago, home of the skyscraper and the Chicago dog, which serves as the starting point for discussing the famous Eames film "Powers of Ten".

"Chicago is also the starting point of a fantastic film, a short film that was made, uh, it was commissioned by IBM in the late '60s, was made by Charles and Ray Eames."

"So the last time I was in Chicago, I thought, 'Where exactly is that opening sequence from Powers of X?'"

Powers of Ten and the Speed of Light (2m20s)

Keith explores how the "Powers of Ten" film illustrates scale and introduces the concept of the speed of light as it relates to web performance. He explains how light travels 186,284 miles per second and discusses the physical nature of the internet through fiber optic cables.

"Performance very important. So if the speed of light, uh, is that distance, um, that we saw, the physical distance, uh, between the earth and moon, then theoretically, to traverse, to do one circuit of the earth could take milliseconds in, in under perfect conditions."

"Our network is very, very physical. It's very, very real. It's, it's cables."

"You will note here it bears absolutely no resemblance to a cloud."

Algorithmic Trading and Geographic Advantage (5m52s)

The talk shifts to how algorithms exploit tiny time advantages in electronic trading, leading to physical changes in our infrastructure. Keith describes "carrier hotels" like 111 8th Avenue in New York where servers are placed for millisecond advantages.

"Algorithms generally answer important questions in life, like, 'Will I get a mortgage?' An algorithm's gonna answer that."

"This would be prime real estate for humans, but it's more important that the algorithms, uh, have access to this particular geographic location."

"So time here has become a valuable business commodity. Those few extra milliseconds really matter and they can give a business a competitive edge."

Historical Context: Ruth Belville and Time Networks (7m41s)

Keith tells the story of Ruth Belville, the "Greenwich Time Lady" who literally sold time as a service, and connects this to how rail networks created the need for standardized time. He explains how different networks throughout history have shaped our relationship with time.

"She's the woman who sold time. Time was literally her business."

"Before the rail networks, you had local time. There was the time in Brighton, there was the time in Bristol. They would be different times. It didn't matter, right?"

"My point here is that our, our relationship with time has always had connection to our networks and the speed of our networks."

The Longitude Prize and Navigation (10m30s)

The discussion moves to the historical Longitude Prize and the three-variable problem of navigation: position of celestial objects, time at a reference point, and position on Earth. Keith humorously describes failed attempts including the "powder of sympathy" method before John Harrison's successful chronometer.

"What the longitude problem boils down to is a, a very simple sort of mathematical equation. It's not, it's not as complex as what Anna was talking about. It's, it's a much more simple algebraic, uh, function here."

"The theory being that there's some kind of sympathetic action in the distance- ... between the knife and the dog, and the dog would bark like, uh, an alarm clock on your ship."

Flow vs Stock: Short-term vs Long-term (14m28s)

Keith introduces Robin Sloane's concepts of "flow" (real-time updates) and "stock" (durable content), arguing that we're neglecting long-term thinking in favour of the immediate. He emphasizes the importance of building for permanence alongside real-time capabilities.

"Flow is the feed, it's the stream, uh, the daily and sub-daily updates. And stock is the durable stuff, what people discover via search."

"Flow is in the ascendant these days. We neglect the stock at our own peril."

"We've all been so distracted by the now that we've hardly noticed the beautiful comet tails of personal history trailing in our wake."

The Lifespan of Digital Content (16m16s)

Keith presents sobering statistics about digital permanence: web pages last 100 days on average, Google products survive about 4 years. He critiques the excitement of startups being acquired by larger companies, noting the pattern of subsequent shutdowns.

"100 days is the average lifespan of a web page."

"Four years is the average lifespan of a Google product."

"That's generally how these announcements go. It's bad news and irrelevant news."

Data Ownership and Service Reliability (19m13s)

The talk addresses the mismatch between user expectations and service longevity. Keith advocates for better data policies and challenges the myth that "the internet never forgets", arguing that digital preservation requires active maintenance.

"Treat our data like it matters. Right? You- you- your- your service would be nothing without our data."

"The internet never forgets. There is no data to support this."

"You have to work at keeping data alive."

Archive.org and Digital Preservation (22m14s)

Keith discusses the Internet Archive's preservation efforts, highlighting Bruce Kahle's principle that "access drives preservation". He emphasizes the importance of maintaining original URLs and the challenges of digital archiving.

"Access drives preservation. That's pretty key."

"We've been given this amazing planet-wide archive of knowledge with near real-time access. It's the best of both worlds, right?"

IndieWebCamp and Personal Data Control (23m33s)

The discussion turns to the IndieWebCamp movement and the radical idea of hosting your own content. Keith advocates for the LOCKSS principle (Lots Of Copies Keep Stuff Safe) while maintaining canonical URLs on personal domains.

"IndieWebCamp, which is dedicated to the radical idea that you should have your own website, uh, and that that's where you should post things."

"You wanna hold on to the original copy, and you want the canonical URL to be at your own website."

Long Bets and Future Predictions (24m42s)

Keith describes his meta-bet on longbets.org that the URL of his prediction won't exist in 11 years (expiring February 22, 2022). He frames this as a win-win scenario, hoping to lose the bet to prove digital permanence.

"The original URL of this prediction will not exist in 11 years."

"I'm really hoping I lose this bet. I'm really hoping that in 2022, this URL still exists and I lose the bet."

Time Capsules and Format Longevity (27m30s)

The talk explores the Swiss Fort Knox time capsule containing various storage media and formats. Keith argues that of all formats preserved, HTML is most likely to survive due to its ubiquity, error handling, and design principles.

"Of the formats, I'm actually pretty sure which one will still be readable at some future date, and I'd put my money on that last format, HTML."

"It's been around for 22 years. Uh, for, for a s- for a format, that, that's a long time."

"HTML is not an output format. HTML is the format. Not the format of forever. But damn if it isn't the format of the now."

Design Principles and Backwards Compatibility (32m17s)

Keith emphasizes HTML's liberal error handling as a key strength for longevity. He contrasts declarative languages (HTML, CSS) with programmatic ones (JavaScript), arguing the former are more robust for long-term preservation.

"The best way to be future-friendly is to be backwards compatible."

"I think inherently, declarative languages are more robust than, you know, procedural programmatic languages."

Long-term Projects and Deep Time (36m00s)

The discussion expands to projects with extreme timescales: the 10,000-year Clock of the Long Now, nuclear waste storage requiring 24,100-year warnings, and the Voyager Golden Record designed for potential alien discovery.

"How do you write a warning for the future, for the future to tell people, 'Keep away.' You can't use language."

"This place is not a place of honor."

CERN and the Birth of the Web (39m44s)

Keith recounts his visit to CERN to recreate early web browsers, describing how CERN's pure research environment influenced Tim Berners-Lee's creation of the web. He emphasizes how the web emerged as a byproduct of fundamental research.

"It's like one big hack day. They're freed, they're freed from the constraints of, of saying, 'What's the business model?'"

"The web, this amazing thing that we work on every day, wasn't the thrust of their research. That was just something to help them along."

Purpose and Long-term Thinking (42m47s)

Keith concludes by urging the audience to think about their purpose in building for the web, advocating for long-term, big-picture thinking that benefits our species and planet.

"We're doing it for the web. And why are we doing it for the web? Well, the web is good for our species, the web is good for our planet, the web is good for our future."

"Think long term, think big picture."